Fuel Oil Price Trend

Fuel Oil Price Trend, Index and Forecast

Track the latest insights on fuel oil price trend and forecast with detailed analysis of regional fluctuations and market dynamics across North America, Latin America, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Middle East, North Africa, West Africa, Central and Southern Africa, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia, and Oceania.

Fuel Oil Prices Outlook Q1 2025

• Canada: US$ 2342/MT
• China: US$ 756/MT
• Germany: US$ 1124/MT
• United Kingdom: US$ 778/MT
• Brazil: US$ 731/MT

Fuel Oil Prices Chart

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During the first quarter of 2025, the fuel oil prices in Canada reached 2342 USD/MT in March. Canadian fuel oil prices were shaped by narrowing Western Canada Select (WCS) crude discounts, reduced federal and provincial fuel taxes, and rising retail fuel demand, especially for diesel. Moreover, tax eliminations significantly lowered pump prices, while geopolitical risks and OPEC+ decisions contributed to price volatility.

During the first quarter of 2025, fuel oil prices in China reached 756 USD/MT in March. During this period, China saw diesel prices rising amid crude volatility. “Teapot refineries”, which are small, independent oil refineries in China, halted operations owing to tax hikes and lowered rebates. Meanwhile, fuel oil imports surged early before expected declines and refining margins tightened while demand plateaued as EVs and petrochemicals reshaped the market.

During the first quarter of 2025, the fuel oil prices in Germany reached 1142 USD/MT in March. Germany’s fuel oil market saw prices rise due to seasonal demand and industrial rebound. Fossil fuel power output increased even as renewable energy underperformed. Meanwhile, carbon taxes rose, adding upward pricing pressure across fuel markets amid ongoing energy transition challenges.

During the first quarter of 2025, the fuel oil prices in the United Kingdom reached 778 USD/MT in March. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) biofuel costs rebounded later in the quarter owing to a rise in renewable transport certificate values. At the same time, a shortfall in renewable energy generation led to an increased reliance on fossil fuel-based power. In addition to this, unseasonably mild winter temperatures reduced demand for heating oil (the UK winter of 2024-2025 was unseasonably mild, with some areas registering temperatures above average and experiencing record-breaking warmth for the time of year). Overall, fuel prices were influenced by both domestic energy shifts and global oil market adjustments.

During the first quarter of 2025, the fuel oil prices in Brazil reached 731 USD/MT in March. Over this period, Brazil’s fuel oil market witnessed strategic price adjustments and evolving demand. Petrobras, the majority state-owned multinational corporation, raised refinery diesel pricing early in the quarter, then cut wholesale diesel rates following a drop in global crude and a stronger local currency. Diesel demand rebounded after seasonal harvest-related declines, supported by increased inventories and steady domestic production amid scheduled refinery maintenance. Brazil also expanded diesel imports, notably from Russia, to fill gaps.

Fuel Oil Prices Outlook Q4 2024

• USA: US$ 2280/MT
• China: US$ 750/MT
• Germany: US$ 1110/MT

During the last quarter of 2024, the fuel oil prices in the USA reached 2280 USD/MT in December. Fuel oil prices performed steadily, supported by consistent demand from the shipping and home industries. Regular exports to Latin America provided additional support for the ongoing refinery activity along the Gulf Coast. The market exhibited considerable calmness in comparison to global price dynamics, despite the introduction of minor headwinds from seasonal shifts and increased use of renewable fuels.

During the last quarter of 2024, the fuel oil prices in China reached 750 USD/MT in December. As per the fuel oil price chart, the consumption decreased, which fueled pessimism in the market. Prices remained defensive as a result of regional refinery capacity expansion that increased supply pressure. Any long-term price recovery was constrained by China's slower economic momentum, which was a major factor in reducing demand.

During the last quarter of 2024, the fuel oil prices in Germany reached 1110 USD/MT in December. Germany’s fuel oil market softened amid a weaker industrial climate and heightened focus on environmental compliance. The transition toward sustainable energy alternatives led to declining traditional fuel use. However, certain fuel oil types especially high-sulfur variants used by ships with scrubbers remained in demand.

Fuel Oil Prices Outlook Q4 2023

• USA: US$ 1047/MT
• China: US$ 758/MT
• Germany: US$ 1237/MT

The fuel oil prices in the USA reached 1047 USD/MT in December 2023.
In December 2023, the priced of fuel oil in China settled at 758 USD/MT.
In Germany, the fuel oil price reached 1237 USD/MT by the end of December 2023.

Regional Coverage

The report provides a detailed analysis of the market across different regions, each with unique pricing dynamics influenced by localized market conditions, supply chain intricacies, and geopolitical factors. This includes price trends, price forecast and supply and demand trends for each region, along with spot prices by major ports. The report also provides coverage of FOB and CIF prices, as well as the key factors influencing the fuel oil prices.

Global Fuel Oil Price Trend

The report offers a holistic view of the global fuel oil pricing trends in the form of fuel oil price charts, reflecting the worldwide interplay of supply-demand balances, international trade policies, and overarching economic factors that shape the market on a macro level. This comprehensive analysis not only highlights current price levels but also provides insights into historical price of fuel oil, enabling stakeholders to understand past fluctuations and their underlying causes. The report also delves into price forecast models, projecting future price movements based on a variety of indicators such as expected changes in supply chain dynamics, anticipated policy shifts, and emerging market trends. By examining these factors, the report equips industry participants with the necessary tools to make informed strategic decisions, manage risks, and capitalize on market opportunities. Furthermore, it includes a detailed fuel oil demand analysis, breaking down regional variations and identifying key drivers specific to each geographic market, thus offering a nuanced understanding of the global pricing landscape.

Europe Fuel Oil Price Trend

Q1 2025:

As per the fuel oil price index, fuel oil prices in Europe were shaped by global economic shifts and geopolitical developments. Prices rose in January, fueled by strong manufacturing data from China (this boosted global market optimism and created expectations of higher oil demand, as China is one of the world’s largest energy consumers). However, by February, sentiment shifted as North American tariffs raised concerns over trade disruptions and European economic growth. By late March, Brent fell to multi-month lows, driven by weak data from the U.S. and Germany and inflationary pressures across Europe.

Q4 2024:

As per the fuel oil price index, market had muted pace as demand was reduced by economic conservatism and dwindling industrial activity. Prices gradually decreased as a result of stricter environmental regulations and a gradual move toward alternate energy sources. However, the ongoing use of high-sulfur fuel classes by ships with exhaust-cleaning systems provided support for them. Reduced imports from Russia and rerouted cargo movements also caused sporadic supply problems, which briefly firmed prices during an otherwise softening period.

Q4 2023:

European fuel oil prices are examined, highlighting the market-specific influences in the region, such as stringent environmental regulations, the competitive landscape, and import-export imbalances that significantly affect pricing structures.

Detailed price information for fuel oil can also be provided for an extensive list of European countries.

North America Fuel Oil Price Trend

Q1 2025:

As per the fuel oil price index, North American crude oil prices in Q1 2025 were supported by strong economic data from China’s expanding manufacturing sector. However, prices were impacted through February following a tariff delay on Mexican and Canadian imports, shifting market sentiment. U.S. crude inventories rose significantly in late January. By March-end, oil prices fell to multi-month lows, driven by weak economic data from the U.S. and Germany and rising inflation concerns.

Q4 2024:

Global volatility was lessened by steady local industrial activity and consistent shipping petroleum requirements at significant ports. Conditions were excellent throughout the US Gulf Coast, where market balance was maintained by strong refining throughput and continuous shipments to Latin America. Although seasonal volatility and renewable alternatives periodically slowed the pace, the region generally remained well-positioned. International market fluctuations were less significant than domestic fundamentals, which kept price variations in check.

Q4 2023:

The analysis of fuel oil prices in North America delves into the regional industry dynamics, encompassing the impact of local production and the trade flows between North America and other significant global markets.

Specific fuel oil historical data within the United States and Canada can also be provided.

Middle East and Africa Fuel Oil Price Trend

Q1 2025:

The report explores the fuel oil trends and fuel oil price chart in the Middle East and Africa, considering factors like regional industrial growth, the availability of natural resources, and geopolitical tensions that uniquely influence market prices.

Region-wise data and information on specific countries within these regions can also be provided.

Asia Pacific Fuel Oil Price Trend

Q1 2025:

Fuel oil prices in the Asia Pacific region followed a fluctuating trajectory, reflecting global economic signals. January saw prices rise, driven by China's manufacturing growth, which raised expectations of stronger regional demand. However, by February, prices were impacted as North American tariffs shifted market sentiment. The decline deepened in March, as weak economic data from the U.S. and Germany, along with inflation concerns, suggested slowing global demand and weighed on APAC energy consumption.

Q4 2024:

A combination of changing market pressures caused significant fluctuations in fuel oil prices throughout Asia. Large economies' slower-than-anticipated recovery reduced industrial consumption, while China's waning appetite and more extensive regional refinery expansions put pressure on values. However, brief price hikes happened when Middle Eastern unrest was at its highest. In hubs like Singapore and South Korea, the demand for naval fuel, especially bunker-grade fuel oil, temporarily increased as a result of these geopolitical tensions disrupting regular trade routes and lengthening voyages.

Q4 2023:

The fuel oil pricing trends in the Asia Pacific are examined, reflecting the role of the region as a major global producer and consumer of agricultural products, with price dynamics heavily influenced by supply chain efficiencies, regional demand surges, and policy shifts in major economies.

This fuel oil price analysis can be expanded to include a comprehensive list of countries within the region.

Latin America Fuel Oil Price Trend

Q1 2025:

Fuel oil prices in Latin America during Q1 2025 rose initially, driven by strong manufacturing data from China that boosted global demand expectations. However, February marked the start of a steady decline, influenced by the postponement of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, which dampened market sentiment. In March, the fuel oil price index was impacted by weak economic data from the U.S. and Germany, coupled with rising inflation and concerns about a global slowdown.

Q4 2024:

Latin America's fuel oil market is predominantly influenced by its rich natural reserves, particularly in countries like Chile and Brazil. However, political instability and inconsistent regulatory frameworks can lead to significant volatility in fuel oil prices. Infrastructure challenges and logistical inefficiencies often impact the supply chain, affecting the region's ability to meet international demand consistently. Moreover, the fuel oil price index, economic fluctuations, and currency devaluation are critical factors that need to be considered when analyzing fuel oil pricing trends in this region.

This comprehensive review can be extended to include specific countries within Latin America.

Fuel Oil Price Trend, Market Analysis, and News

IMARC's latest publication, “Fuel Oil Prices, Trend, Chart, Demand, Market Analysis, News, Historical and Forecast Data Report 2025 Edition,” presents a detailed examination of the fuel oil market, providing insights into both global and regional trends that are shaping prices. This report delves into the spot price of fuel oil at major ports and analyzes the composition of prices, including FOB and CIF terms. It also presents detailed fuel oil prices trend analysis by region, covering North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East and Africa. The factors affecting fuel oil pricing, such as the dynamics of supply and demand, geopolitical influences, and sector-specific developments, are thoroughly explored. This comprehensive report helps stakeholders stay informed with the latest market news, regulatory updates, and technological progress, facilitating informed strategic decision-making and forecasting.

Fuel Oil Industry Analysis

The global fuel oil market size reached USD 196.76 Billion in 2024. By 2033, IMARC Group expects the market to reach USD 269.6 Billion, at a projected CAGR of 3.38% during 2025-2033.

• Rapid economic expansion in both emerging and developed economies is pushing up demand for fuel oil. Nations' energy needs are growing to sustain industrial activity, transportation, and infrastructural development. Global energy consumption increased by 2.1% in 2022. Additionally, there was a 15% increase in fossil fuel investment between 2021 and 2023. Urbanization and growing living standards are also driving up energy demand, hence boosting the fuel oil industry. Aside from that, economic policies boosting industrialization and infrastructure projects are accelerating demand, assuring the market's consistent growth trajectory.
   
• Fuel oil is a crucial energy source for numerous industrial processes, especially in the manufacturing, power generation, and petrochemical sectors. According to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), there was a 2.3% growth in the industrial sector in 2023. Industries rely on fuel oil for its high energy content and cost-effectiveness. The growth of industries, as well as the modernization of existing industrial facilities, is driving the demand for fuel oil. Additionally, seasonal variations and peak energy demands in industrial activities are also contributing to the market growth.
   
• The shipping industry is a significant consumer of fuel oil, particularly heavy fuel oil (HFO) used in large vessels. Global trade expansion and increasing maritime transportation of goods are driving the demand for marine fuel. According to the IMARC Group, the ship building sector is expected to grow at a rate of 3.07% annually, reaching US$ 207.6 billion by 2032. Additionally, the significant growth of international trade routes, the expansion of shipping fleets, and the construction of larger vessels to meet rising trade volumes are further propelling the market growth.
   
• Innovations in fuel oil production, refining technologies, and fuel efficiency enhancements are contributing to the market growth. Advancements in refining processes, which improve the quality and yield of fuel oil, making it more competitive, are acting as another growth-inducing factor. Besides this, the introduction of technologies that enhance combustion efficiency and reduce emissions, making fuel oil more environmentally acceptable, is fueling the market growth. Additionally, the ongoing research into alternative uses and blends of fuel oil with biofuels or other energy sources is also driving the market dynamics.

Fuel Oil News

The report covers the latest developments, updates, and trends impacting the global fuel oil industry, providing stakeholders with timely and relevant information. This segment covers a wide array of news items, including the inauguration of new production facilities, advancements in fuel oil production technologies, strategic market expansions by key industry players, and significant mergers and acquisitions that impact the fuel oil price trend.

Latest developments in the fuel oil industry:

• In October 2023: Exxon Mobil announced its plan to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, a leading hydrocarbon exploration company, in an all-stock deal of $59.5 billion.
• In October 2023: Chevron acquired Hess Corp., a leading oil, gas, and energy company for $53 billion. Under this acquisition, Chevron will get a major oil field in Guyana and shale properties in the Bakken Formation in North Dakota.

Product Description

Fuel oil is a fraction obtained from petroleum distillation, either as a distillate or a residue. It is known for its high energy content and is a critical energy source for various industrial and commercial applications. It comes in various types like heavy fuel oil (HFO), marine gas oil (MGO), intermediate fuel oil (IFO), light fuel oil (LFO), residual fuel oil, and distillate fuel oil.

Its chemical and physical properties include density (0.85 to 1.00 g/cm³), boiling point (175 to 600°C), flash point (60 to 93°C for lighter oils, over 120°C for heavier oils), and sulfur content (between 0.5% and 3.5%). The manufacturing process of fuel oil involves multiple steps like distillation, cracking, blending, desulfurization, and hydroprocessing.

It is used in power generation, marine transportation, industrial boilers, residential heating, backup generators, asphalt production, chemical manufacturing, agricultural dryers, mining operations, and railway locomotives. Fuel oil is lauded for its high energy density, cost-effectiveness, reliability, versatility, high efficiency, and easy availability.

Report Coverage

Key Benefits for Stakeholders:

• IMARC’s report presents a detailed analysis of fuel oil pricing, covering global and regional trends, spot prices at key ports, and a breakdown of FOB and CIF prices.
• The study examines factors affecting fuel oil price trend, including input costs, supply-demand shifts, and geopolitical impacts, offering insights for informed decision-making.
• The competitive landscape review equips stakeholders with crucial insights into the latest market news, regulatory changes, and technological advancements, ensuring a well-rounded, strategic overview for forecasting and planning.
• IMARC offers various subscription options, including monthly, quarterly, and biannual updates, allowing clients to stay informed with the latest market trends, ongoing developments, and comprehensive market insights. The fuel oil price charts ensure our clients remain at the forefront of the industry.